Mechanism is a causal connection.
Change a molecular state, make a prediction before the reveal, inspect the evidence boundary, challenge the interpretation and choose the experiment that would discriminate mechanism from artefact.
PAR releases autoinhibition.
Primary source: Singh HR et al., Molecular Cell (2017). Single first author. The state diagram is explanatory; publication-backed F2H evidence is a separate evidence layer.
How does PAR convert ALC1 from an autoinhibited molecular state into an active chromatin-remodelling state?
The published work combines live-cell interaction behaviour with orthogonal mechanistic evidence. This page does not substitute a schematic for the original experiment.
Without the activating PAR signal, the explanatory model remains biased toward the autoinhibited state.
PAR absent · no prediction recorded · evidence not yet revealed.
The selected experiment will be assessed against the ambiguity you chose.
No small-molecule intervention selected. Resolve the evidence ambiguity first.
ALC1 as a modular chromatin machine.
From a molecular change to a causal explanation.
Each investigation separates the claim, the measurement and the experiment that could overturn the model. Open only the question you need.
Prediction rule: before opening a card, state the result expected under the preferred model and one result that would favour its strongest alternative.
01Define the causal claimWhat exactly is proposed to cause what?
- Evidence to inspect
- Intervention identity, temporal order, proximal intermediate, downstream phenotype and matched control.
- What would falsify it
- Verified intervention changes neither the proposed intermediate nor the phenotype.
- Primary confound
- A correlated state or broad stress response changes all three measurements.
- Highest-value next test
- Write two competing directed models and choose one intervention with opposite predicted outcomes.
02Protect folding and abundanceDid the perturbation alter the intended interface rather than the whole protein?
- Evidence to inspect
- Expression, stability, solubility, localisation, domain integrity and orthogonal structural or biophysical controls.
- What would falsify it
- The phenotype remains after abundance and folding are restored independently of the proposed interface.
- Primary confound
- Deletion or mutation destabilises the protein or moves it to another compartment.
- Highest-value next test
- Use a minimal interface mutation plus dosage-matched rescue and an orthogonal folding check.
03Resolve affinity and kineticsIs the interaction strong, long-lived, cooperative—or merely abundant?
- Evidence to inspect
- Association and dissociation rates, equilibrium affinity, concentration, stoichiometry, competition and cellular residence time.
- What would falsify it
- Cellular function is unchanged across a range that materially changes occupancy or residence time.
- Primary confound
- Avidity, rebinding or local concentration makes an endpoint assay look like tight binding.
- Highest-value next test
- Measure kinetics and occupancy under matched concentration, then perturb residence without changing abundance.
04Test allosteryDoes ligand binding change the conformational ensemble that controls activity?
- Evidence to inspect
- Ligand occupancy, interdomain contacts, catalytic state, conformational readout and directional rescue.
- What would falsify it
- Ligand remains bound but the predicted conformational and catalytic transitions do not follow.
- Primary confound
- Binding and activation are parallel consequences of another modification or partner.
- Highest-value next test
- For ALC1, separate PAR binding, macrodomain release and ATPase activation with state-specific mutants and inhibitors.
05Quantify cooperativityDoes one molecular event alter the probability of the next?
- Evidence to inspect
- Stoichiometry, Hill behaviour, single-molecule or single-cell distributions, concentration range and alternative binding models.
- What would falsify it
- A non-cooperative model predicts held-out concentrations equally well.
- Primary confound
- Heterogeneous abundance or detection thresholds create an artificial steep transition.
- Highest-value next test
- Fit competing mechanistic models to calibrated concentration series and test a held-out perturbation.
06Place mechanism in space and timeWhere and when must the interaction occur to produce function?
- Evidence to inspect
- Compartment-specific engagement, recruitment kinetics, pulse duration, recovery and spatially resolved downstream response.
- What would falsify it
- Relocation or timing changes do not affect the response despite disrupting the proposed encounter.
- Primary confound
- Slow transport or assay integration obscures the true order of events.
- Highest-value next test
- Use acute recruitment or release with sampling faster than the predicted transition.
07Establish necessity, sufficiency and rescueWhich causal leg is actually supported?
- Evidence to inspect
- Loss, gain, acute perturbation, mechanism-specific rescue, dose response and orthogonal tools.
- What would falsify it
- The same phenotype appears with unrelated perturbations and cannot be rescued through the proposed link.
- Primary confound
- Off-target activity, overexpression or adaptation produces a convergent endpoint.
- Highest-value next test
- Use two orthogonal perturbations and a rescue that restores the specific molecular step.
08Prove small-molecule mechanism of actionDoes the compound act through the proposed state and target?
- Evidence to inspect
- Direct engagement, selectivity, structure–activity relationship, resistant allele, proximal pharmacodynamic marker and phenotype.
- What would falsify it
- A target-resistant allele or loss of the target fails to change compound response.
- Primary confound
- Reactive chemistry, aggregation or general DNA-damage toxicity phenocopies target inhibition.
- Highest-value next test
- Combine engagement, resistant-mutant rescue and proteome-scale selectivity at matched exposure.
09Make the programme decisionWhich model deserves the next experiment?
- Evidence to inspect
- Evidence class, effect size, uncertainty, alternative models, feasibility and pre-defined stopping criteria.
- What would falsify it
- No plausible result from the proposed experiment would change the action.
- Primary confound
- The easiest assay is mistaken for the most informative one.
- Highest-value next test
- Choose the experiment with the greatest separation between model predictions and record outcome-dependent actions.